Where to for Australian Interest Rates in 2010?
Welcome back!
Interest Rates have risen dramatically in recent months on the back of the RBA increasing rates by 0.75% upon stronger economic conditions in Australia.
What does 2010 have in store for the home owner and the average investor dependant on interest rates? Well one thing would appear certain, we are headed for higher interest rates again in 2010 as the economy looks set to continue the miracle of the last 20 years.
With the RBA rate set at 3.75% and the focus on moving towards a non-inflationary rate (around 5.00% at least as conditions improve) then we can expect to test 4.25-4.50% in the first six months of the year. A big early year trigger will be holiday consumption and Christmas sales figures that will influence any decision by the RBA in February.
Meanwhile, the banks appear hungry to increase rates in excess of the RBA rate as evidenced in the November rate increase. With banks keen to maintain or even increase margins to offset increased funding costs this will be another clear trend in 2010.
Expect interest rates to tick higher early in the year and as the world economy rebounds, the UK and US will be pivotal, the RBA will have little option to increase rates. All this means that 2010 will be tough year for homeowners and will give pensioners and those dependant on fixed interest rates some solace after the last few years of low savings account interest rates.
It is hard to see home prices showing any real growth in 2010, at the top end expect decent rises as the wealthy once again impose themselves on the top end of the property market after a restrained period in recent years.
What do you think 2010 has in store for interest rates and the Australian economy, share your thoughts?
Banks outperform the market
The recent performance of the Australian banks on the ASX has been impressive. All the banks have risen strongly off recent lows and while gains have moderated future share price gains look certain.
During the recent global downturn the gains in market share by the Australian Big 4 banks has been staggering. As the smaller lenders and part players in the market have either disappeared or been acquired by the big four the future gains of the big banks has been even further cemented.
The real issue in the Australian banking sector now is the lack of competition in the market. As the big banks have approximately 90% of the market share alternate market lenders lack the mass and capital to compete. This will lead to future out-performance of the banks and increasing lending margins that will impact home buyers much more than investors.
RBA strike with interest rate rise to 3.25%
The Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens hiked rates today by 0.25% to 3.25% on the back of strengthening signs of economic recovery and rising concerns at the RBA of potential inflation risks from low interest rates.
The rate increase, the first since April 2009 when rates were decreased to 3.00%, signals a move by the RBA to limit the possibility of rampant inflation on the back of historically low interest rates. The move is not likely to be the end of the cuts with talk already of another increase on Melbourne Cup day in November.
All big banks are likely to pass on the rate increase promptly.
What do you think interest rates will go up to by the end of 2010? Share your thoughts in our comments section.
Can NAB make a go of the Goldman Sachs JB Were broking business?
During the week NAB purchased 80.1% of Goldman Sachs JB Were’s brokering business for $99 million but will be purchase be another bank debacle for the big four banks.
The brokering business has approximately 22,000 customers and while consuming around 8% of the domestic broker market in Australia is far from the hey-day of JB Were’s peak. The decision for NAB to purchase a controlling interest is a bid decision in light of the broader failures experienced by all the banks will wealth management operations.
But can NAB make a success of this? NAB have arguably bought the operations in a downturn which will benefit the bank but the business is likely to experience significant leakage of major brokers and broker clients as the leading brokers start their own operations or get snapped up by other majors like Macquarie.
The old days of brokering houses being a goldmine appear to be long gone and unless NAB can find a way to create ‘rivers of gold’ again from the operation then it’s likely it will be a failure. Althoughs JB , at a cost of $99 million is is marginal in the scheme of the banks overall operations both in positive and negative terms.
What do you think of the decision to buy the Goldman Sachs JB Were brokering operations? Are you a client who will stay with them under NAB or will you leave? Share your thoughts in our comments section.
ANZ close to securing RBS Asian Assets
Reports indicate that ANZ may be close to securing the key Asian assets of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). ANZ have kept no secret of the desire to secure the assets but are keeping their lips tight at the moment and not revealing any information ahead of a possible announcement next week.
Should ANZ secure the assets it will be a massive boost for the plans of ANZ Bank to develop a super-regional bank that will better help it differentiate itself from the other Australian banks.
NAB seek $2.75 billion share placement
The NAB in a quarterly update announced a $2.75 billion capital raising, $2 billion from institutional investors and $750 million through a retail share offer.
The share placement will increase tier one capital from 8.2% to 8.8% in what was a mild surprise to the market and indicated that we have not sen the end of the bank capital raisings.
The announcement makes the recent ANZ announcement even better timed as they managed to jump in first to secure capital with others likely to come back to the table for further funds.
The bank will also raise up to $750 million through an offer of new shares to retail investors.
NAB used the market update to also indicate tat they have taken a charge for bad and doubtful debts which rose to $1.06 billion for the three months to 30 June 2009. The announcement indicated that the bank was being hit hard by the market crunch and general rise in bad debts.
The equity raising will go some way to secure further liquidity for the bank at a time when the Australian economy has not hit the peak of the downturn.
Should you fix rates on your mortage?
Well do you think you should fix your mortgage now? Well with interest rates near the low point in the cycle then it could be the perfect time to fix your mortgage.
Traditionally when the economic talk is still negative and the rumours in the market are for the RBA to make further cuts it is almost perfect time to lock in rates. The markets have all kicked higher with the hope of the economy recovering through 2009 but home owners should not wait till the economy improves as the RBA will but trying to slow the rapid growth that low interest rates will generate.
While interest rates are still low by historical standards it’s hard to imagine they will be at or near similar levels in two years time as the economy is likely to be back in full gear by then.
If your happy to take your chances and ride the cycles stick with the variable rate but if you want any mortgage certainty consider locking in now. Remember it has been along time since the official cash rate was anywhere near current levels.
NZ Tax Bill to hot Australian Banks
New Zealand has been an unhappy hunting ground in recent years for Australia’s top four banks and it seems to be the case again with the big banks looking at a AUD$1.9 billion tax bill after a ruling by the New Zealand High Court.
The decision was against the National Australia Bank regarding sic structured finance transactions. While an appeal is a given the NAB are looking at needing to raise capital to cover the $550 million approx provision.
Justice John Wild said the transactions had “no commercial purpose or rationale”, other than to use the bank’s tax capacity to generate exempt income. The decision puts not only NAB but CBA, Westpac and ANZ on a collision course with regulators and a similar outcome.
It would seem ANZ and Westpac have adequate provisions already in case whereas CBA was less clear.
ANZ raise $2.2 billion in Share Purchase Plan
The ANZ Bank has pulled off an amazingly successful share purchase plan raising $2.2 billion from retail investors.
The retail share placement is the largest in Australian corporate history after a planned raising of $350 million. Investors in ANZ were allocated their full entitlement at $14.40 per share. The ANZ share price closed down over 2% today at $15.89 indicating some retail investors were already taking profits.
The share purchase plan takes the ANZ tier one capital to 9.5%, the largest of all the banks.
RBA keep rates steady
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates steady at a near 50 year low of 3.00% yesterday amid increasing levels of positivity about the state of the Australian economy.
Glenn Stevens the Reserve Bank Governer indicated the RBA still had room to reduce interest rates should the need arise due to the marginal impact of inflation in the current forecasts. While Glenn Stevens indicated the RBA still had scope to cut rates the general tone was positive and the state of the Australian and global economies would have to further deteoriate for the RBA to consider a cut.
It is highly likely we have either seen the bottom or are with 0.25% of the bottom of the cycle. Some forecasters are already looking at an increase in early 2010 as the uptick takes hold.